Author: 0xGeeGee, Researcher at Chaos Labs

Compiled by: Yuliya, PANews

Editor's Note: Chaos Labs researcher 0xGeeGee recently published an in-depth long thread, outlining market thoughts for the current and upcoming week, covering shifts in major AI trends, potential projects in the RWA sector, shorting opportunities arising from space concept stocks and Nasdaq-100 index adjustments, and the development status of crypto neo-banks. Below is the compiled original text:

Sharing some new thoughts here to wrap up this week and kick off trading for the next. I still hold some older, longer-term positions (like HYPE, BTC/MSTR, VELO/AERO), so I won't comment much on those here, but my core trading logic remains unchanged.

I. The Major AI Trend for 2026 and Beyond: The Fable Ban and Trading Opportunities

Let me first reiterate a view I firmly believe in, which will shape the AI development landscape this year and even for years to come (at least in terms of market sentiment; actual application is still hard to say, after all, everything is too new).

This core view is: AI is facing an economic reckoning.

In the past, the corporate mindset for investing in Large Language Models (LLMs) was "invest as much as you can," but now, as more people who use LLMs independently long-term with objective clarity emerge, traditional enterprises are beginning to realize an important reality: a lack of effective organizational management might lead to superficial productivity gains, while failing to achieve true efficiency in practice.

Therefore, companies are now starting to emphasize enhancing "organizational management capabilities": making expenditures transparent, clarifying what is productive and what is ineffective, how to maximize the utility of every expense, and how to reuse the results generated from past investments. Essentially, we are rediscovering the importance of diligence, something enterprises are very clear about in other areas but deemed unnecessary for AI spending.

Now, let's talk about specific trading ideas. I previously missed the trading opportunity brought by the Fable ban because I wasn't fully awake yet, and I thought the immediate conclusions people jumped to were a bit silly (if you try to offer workarounds to bypass the ban, you will be severely sanctioned, which is definitely not bullish). But rationally, a more logical reasoning is that this event will draw more market attention to decentralized models and privacy protection (whether during model training or inference).

This theme happens to echo the previously mentioned "efficiency" theme, because everyone knows that the per-unit intelligence cost of open-source models is generally 90% lower than traditional models, even though their performance hasn't yet reached the level of top-tier frontier models.

So, am I going to aggressively shill $VVV or $TAO? Or am I going to shill $PRL?

Absolutely not. While there are several upcoming tokens worth watching, I can't justifiably recommend an asset with massive unlock pressure (TAO), an asset that has already surged 20x (VVV), or a project whose core selling point is "it's Bitcoin but you have to mine it by doing inference/AI work" (PRL).

1a: EigenCloud and DarkBloom

However, I do have two ideas in this track.

The first is $EIGEN (hold on, put down those rotten tomatoes you're ready to throw...). Eigenlayer can be said to be the most disappointing project of the 2023 cycle. I dare say, the disillusionment with restaking has largely contributed to the current bearish sentiment around Ethereum (it also siphoned off a lot of capital that could have flowed elsewhere).

The reason I bring it up is that Eigenlayer has essentially pivoted from pure restaking and DA (Data Availability) towards EigenCloud. If you're still confused after hearing this (honestly, that's normal), what I want to emphasize more is the new thing they just launched : DarkBloom.

Simply put: It's an AI inference Airbnb based on Mac computer computing power, with privacy and verification mechanisms layered on the bottom.

Beyond that, they have other moves (like ECSDA Fail, which is pretty cool, everyone can look it up). Even if you think these things have too narrow an entry point, don't forget that EIGEN is no longer that behemoth with a $20 billion Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV); its current FDV is actually only around $350 million (okay, although there are still $7.25 million in monthly unlocks... but we can turn a blind eye).

After the ELIP-12 proposal, EIGEN also has the opportunity to start capturing some real revenue (including 100% of net revenue from EigenAI, EigenCloud, EigenDA, and 20% of revenue from AVS security service networks).

In summary, at this position, I am bullish on EIGEN and have already bought some.

1b: OpenServ

The second project is OpenServ (ticker symbol $SERV).

I won't spend too much space on this project because I've talked about it many times before. It is essentially an inference/orchestration layer for Agents. Very few altcoins can simultaneously meet so many of my screening criteria:

• Good narrative and actual business

• Indeed has real-world adoption (even including non-crypto native traditional enterprises)

• Token has a clear revenue capture path

Regarding the last point: Customers can purchase inference credits with USD or USDC, and 25% of SERV inference API revenue will be used to buy back and burn SERV tokens on the market. Not only that, officials also stated that 25% of Build business revenue, 25% of Launchpad liquidity pool trading fees, and 25% of enterprise/B2B integration revenue will all be used for buybacks and burns.

All of this looks very positive and promising; my only concern is that the discussion buzz around this project is a bit too loud, which is often not a good sign in investing. But I am still willing to hold it and get on this train.

II. RWA: Credit and Tokenized Stocks

This might be another topic we'll be fed and discussed to death (just like last year, AI and RWA, RWA and AI, with a sprinkle of privacy concepts in between).

2a: Morpho

In terms of credit tokenization and various yield-bearing assets, it's now clear in everyone's mind that $MORPHO is already the industry leader in this field (although people still have reservations about some specific markets curators are building — but that's okay). It not only received investment from Apollo this February but also recently completed a new funding round led by a16z, Paradigm, and Ribbit.

Currently, the dynamics of the MORPHO token are an open secret, no need to beat around the bush: an Over-The-Counter (OTC) deal passed and funded by the team internally obviously won't directly boost the secondary market price. However, as long as these (currently semi-public) deal terms are as favorable as they seem, the market's attention on the token suggests that the situation might change in the future — holding it might no longer just be some trophy or medal accompanying another deal, but could have more substantial meaning.

2b: Backpack Securities

In the RWA track, another token worth our close attention is $BP (hoping this isn't me calling the local top after quietly enjoying a big surge).

Although I've never used their exchange (and I'm not particularly interested in it), as long as you're not blind, you can see their tokenization attempts are gathering considerable momentum. The token's circulating market cap is still under $100 million, fully possessing the potential for a pump.

It must be emphasized that Backpack is not just an exchange, nor just a wallet.

Backpack Securities is actually a formal brokerage firm that allows you to bi-directionally tokenize your held assets and supports bi-directional transfers with other brokerages. Although shareholder-related features are still under development, they are expected to go live soon. I don't particularly like the team, but the bullish logic for this project is very clear.

Especially in the Solana ecosystem, apart from the recent JTO (and JTX), there hasn't been a real super winner for a long time. And this project, once again, perfectly fits my multiple selection criteria.

Moreover, now is an excellent time to seize the spotlight, because many other so-called "tokenization" projects are essentially concocting ethereal multi-layered synthetic garbage, or wildly hyping grand Pre-IPO visions, only to deliver worthless results in the end.

2c: Other Projects to Watch

As reverse mergers in the traditional finance sector are being intensely prepared, Securitize's $CEPT is clearly a very important bellwether to watch.

Finally, I want to give a quick shill for Variational here: this exchange is indeed great (in fact, due to the very rich variety of trading instruments it offers, it's currently my favorite platform for short-term daily trading). They recently just started introducing RWA assets. Although the scale of assets offered isn't large enough yet, and the bid-ask spreads are sometimes not ideal, this undoubtedly further enriches its already comprehensive asset coverage.

I really like Variational (and, farming some points is also excellent).

Perhaps we can also add $PLUME to the RWA sector. It looks like they've finally found their footing and are progressing smoothly in business development (like recent integrations with platforms such as GRVT, Bybit), and the K-line chart also has a chance to form a nice rounded bottom. Let's wait and see.

III. Space Concept Stocks and New Nasdaq-100 Members

I'll keep this part brief, as I've already revealed the core logic before.

SpaceX has started to gain momentum. And $RKLB (Rocket Lab) has long served as its shadow stock / Beta asset, and was even recently added to the Nasdaq-100 Index.

Over the past 5 years, newly added stocks to the Nasdaq-100 have, on average, outperformed QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) by about 37% in the 120 days before official inclusion; however, in the 120 days after official inclusion, their performance consistently lags behind QQQ (usually accompanied by absolute price declines).

Due to the additional catalyst from SpaceX, RKLB had previously become an extreme case of outperforming the market; therefore, I expect it will also become an extreme typical case of underperforming the market after official inclusion.

The put options I bought have finally moved in-the-money, and I have also separately established a short position. I also looked for other equally perfect targets to pair with this "SpaceX sell-the-news" shorting idea, but it's hard to find anything better than this.

Another stock I am closely watching is $CRWV. Although it has nothing to do with SpaceX, like RKLB, it is a new member set to be officially added to the index on June 22nd, and it is also a retail investor favorite in this cycle.

IV. Finally: Crypto NeoBanks

With the release of the P1 (Plasma One) announcement, $XPL experienced an extremely rapid surge, which also gave a boost to several smaller market cap "crypto neo-bank" tokens, but didn't lift all projects across the board.

Personally, although I am a beneficiary and an enthusiastic fan of XPL’s recent surge, I am not confident enough to believe this will translate into broad market buying across the entire neobank sector. Therefore, I will not open any new positions based on this narrative (aside from my currently locked XPL holdings, I do not plan to add any positions).

I quite like their bank card and may even sign up for a paid plan.

Recently, I have been moving back and forth between P1 and EtherFi, but ultimately I have been spending more time on P1, mainly because its user experience is much smoother. Its perks are also better.

However, now that EtherFi has introduced a zero-fee promotion for euro spending, while P1’s 3% cashback on spending is about to become a paid-tier feature, both projects (and their respective tokens) actually have their own merits and are worth debating.