Today's top news highlights:
1. Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: The first non-farm payrolls report since the shutdown is coming, and the crypto market may continue to be under pressure.
2. Arthur Hayes is suspected of selling $1.66 million in ETH, $733,000 in ENA, and $124,000 in ETHFI.
3. Arthur Hayes is suspected of selling another $2.45 million worth of ETH, ENA, LDO, AAVE, and UNI.
4. Bitmine increased its holdings by 67,000 ETH in the past week, worth over $234 million.
5. Glassnode: Only 5% of the supply of the top 500 altcoins is profitable.
6. Tom Lee: The crypto market weakness is a short-term fluctuation, but now is not the time to use leverage.
7. Santiment: Retail investor panic and FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Demand) are severely elevated, significantly increasing the likelihood of a market reversal.
8. The crypto fear and greed index fell to 10, its lowest level since February 27.
Macro
As the relief following the historic US government shutdown faded, coupled with a flood of economic data to be released and concerns about the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates in December, caution prevailed on Wall Street this week. Risk aversion exacerbated the Bitcoin sell-off. Bitcoin has retreated from its all-time high in early October, recording only a slight increase so far in 2025. The largest digital asset has fallen below the $95,000 mark. CoinGecko data shows that the crypto market continues to be under pressure after a $19 billion liquidation on October 10th, which wiped out over $1 trillion in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Here are the key points the market will be focusing on this week:
Tuesday 02:00: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member, will host a fireside chat.
Thursday 03:00: The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, and FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech.
Friday 02:40: Chicago Fed President Goolsby, a 2025 FOMC voting member, will speak.
Friday 05:30: 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak on the economic outlook.
Friday 20:30: Williams, permanent voting member of the FOMC and president of the New York Federal Reserve, will speak.
Friday 22:00: Dallas Fed President Logan, a 2026 FOMC voting member, participates in a panel discussion of the "2025 Swiss National Bank and Its Observers" event.
The market has taken note of the numerous comments from so-called "inflation hawks." Investors have lowered the probability of a December rate cut to below 50%. Prior to the Fed's October meeting, the market had almost fully priced in a December rate cut.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 44.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 55.6%.
According to Caixin, Qian Zhimin, the main suspect in a money laundering case involving 60,000 Bitcoins, purchased Bitcoins at an average price of 2,815 yuan per coin (statistical method unknown). However, by the time she was sentenced in the UK, the price of Bitcoin had inflated 266 times to 750,000 yuan per coin. Regarding the disposal of the assets frozen in the UK, the UK has not yet made substantial progress towards returning or sharing them with the Chinese authorities. The Hedong Branch of the Tianjin Public Security Bureau, which is investigating the Lantian Gree case, also issued a notice on October 30 stating that the public security organs are continuing cross-border cooperation with UK law enforcement agencies to pursue fugitives and recover assets, making every effort to recover losses for those who participated in the fundraising scheme. On November 17, 2025, the UK High Court will hold another hearing on the disposal of the 60,000 Bitcoins.
Opinion
OKX founder and CEO Star posted on the X platform: "Anyone who can provide conclusive evidence that OKX Wallet has a backdoor will be rewarded with 10 BTC by our OKX Wallet team. We ask the tens of millions of OKX Wallet users worldwide to monitor this. Security and transparency are our bottom line, and we welcome community review."
Regarding the recent unfounded accusations that "OKX Wallet has a backdoor," OKX CEO Star posted on the X platform, stating, "OKX Wallet's private key module and all related smart contracts are fully open source. Many companies in the industry (including our competitors) are using our open-source code, which reflects our long-term commitment to promoting transparency and security in the industry. As for non-private key modules, their source code is not currently open source because these parts are commercial software. Users are free to choose whether to use OKX Wallet based on their own needs and preferences."
He further pointed out that OKX Wallet is also one of the earliest MPC no-private-key wallet service providers in the industry. Due to limitations in market acceptance, user experience, and DApp support in earlier versions of the MPC product, we have decided to completely discontinue the old version of the MPC wallet and launched a more advanced and superior next-generation no-private-key wallet—CeDeFi Wallet. We welcome everyone to try it out and provide feedback. The open-source code repository is attached.
https://github.com/okx
https://github.com/okxlabs
Glassnode: Only 5% of the supply of the top 500 altcoins is profitable.
According to Glassnode data, the relative profitability of altcoins (Top 500) is stabilizing in the deep capitulation zone, with only about 5% of the supply remaining profitable, while Bitcoin's profitability has just begun to decline sharply. This unusual divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins is unprecedented in previous cycles.
Strategy founder Michael Saylor appeared to be responding to the recent decline in the crypto market, stating on the X platform, "If you want to ride a rocket, you have to be prepared to experience gravitational acceleration."
BitMine Chairman Tom Lee stated on the X platform, "In my view, the weakness in cryptocurrencies has all the following signs: a significant gap in the balance sheets of one (or two) market makers; sharks are poised to sell Bitcoin, attempting to trigger a liquidation/price crash. This pain is short-term and will not change Wall Street's supercycle of building Ethereum on the blockchain." Lee added, "Now is not the time to use leverage. Don't let yourself get liquidated."
Crypto sentiment analysis platform Santiment tweeted that while a surge in Bitcoin discussion on social media isn't necessarily a sign that the cryptocurrency has bottomed out, it significantly increases the likelihood of a market reversal. Last Friday, when Bitcoin's price fell below $95,000, related discussion reached its highest level in four months, indicating severely heightened retail investor panic and market uncertainty (FUD).
According to market sources, Vida, founder of Equation News, posted on his personal channel that he has increased his holdings of BTC as a long-term investment and a small-cap meme coin for short-term speculation over the next few months. Vida stated that he is bullish on the crypto market in the coming months because:
- US stocks won't fall too drastically. The decline in the crypto market is somewhat of an overreaction to panic.
- BTC is currently supported by the 1-week Supertrend indicator, which is probably the most effective support level in this bull market.
- The altcoin market is currently experiencing excessive panic, and buying during periods of extreme panic generally yields higher success rates.
Bitwise CEO: Bitcoin's four-year cycle has been broken; 2026 remains undefined.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley shared his observations on the four-year cycle phenomenon on Twitter, with the prevailing view being that people believe in the four-year cycle and that the price of Bitcoin will fall in 2026.
First-order effect: People will sell in 2025 to avoid a year of market decline.
Second-order effect: The sell-off in 2025 made 2025 a year of decline, thus breaking the four-year cycle.
The third-order effect: 2026 is still undefined, and the four-year cycle has been broken.
Hunter Horsley previously stated that the four-year cycle model is based on the old era of cryptocurrencies. Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF and the appointment of new management, a completely new market structure has emerged: new participants, new dynamics, and new reasons for people to buy and sell. It is highly likely that we have already experienced a bear market of nearly six months, and that this bear market is nearing its end.
Project Updates
Yala, the Bitcoin liquidity provider and its native stablecoin project, announced on the X platform that it has noticed recent community concerns and is actively investigating. More updates will be released soon. According to a GoPlus alert , Yala's stablecoin YU previously appeared to be experiencing suspicious activity similar to USDX. An address borrowed the full amount of USDC and most of YU from the Yala Frontier market on Euler, failing to repay for an extended period at high interest rates, resulting in 100% market utilization and lenders being unable to withdraw. YU liquidity on EVM is low; while the apparent LP size is large, over 90% is YU itself, which is difficult to exchange for other stable assets, posing a significant risk of liquidation and de-pegging. Furthermore, according to Coingecko data, YU is currently trading at $0.97 and has not yet fully returned to its peg.
Important data
The crypto fear and greed index fell to 10, its lowest level since February 27.
According to Alternative data, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is 10 today (compared to 16 yesterday), the lowest level since February 27. The average for last week was 20, indicating that the market remains in a state of "extreme fear".
Arthur Hayes is suspected of selling $1.66 million in ETH, $733,000 in ENA, and $124,000 in ETHFI.
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Arthur Hayes appears to have sold ETH, ENA, and ETHFI 4 hours ago.
- 520 ETH (worth $1.66 million) sent to Binance and FalconX
- 2.62 million ENAs (worth $733,000) were sent to Binance, Wintertermute, and FalconX.
- 132,730 ETHFI (worth $124,000) were sent to Wintertermute.
In addition, Arthur received USDC worth $3.56 million from FlowDesk.
Arthur Hayes is suspected of selling another $2.45 million worth of ETH, ENA, LDO, AAVE, and UNI.
According to Lookonchain, Arthur Hayes may be dumping a large amount of crypto assets, selling 260 ETH (worth $820,000), 2.4 million ENA (worth $651,000), 640,000 LDO (worth $480,000), 1,630 AAVE (worth $289,000), and 28,670 UNI (worth $209,000).
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale shorted BTC, XRP, and ZEC, with a total position value of $196 million: BTC position valued at $148.5 million (40x leverage), XRP position valued at $27.4 million (20x leverage), and ZEC position valued at $20.4 million (10x leverage).
CryptoSlam data shows that NFT market transaction volume fell 5.06% to $79.48 million in the past week. The number of NFT buyers increased by 987.18% to 222,209; the number of sellers surged by 714.77% to 189,963; and the number of NFT transactions decreased by 20.92% to 1,097,565.
Ethereum network transaction volume reached $34.29 million, up 5.55% from the previous week; BNB Chain network transaction volume reached $8.72 million, up 19.50%; Bitcoin network transaction volume reached $8.03 million, down 13.82%.
This week's high-value deals include:
- Autoglyphs #141 sold for $199,135.19 (56 WETH).
- V1 Cryptopunks Wrapped #7139 was first sold for $196,267.55 (57 WETH); it was sold a second time for $194,923.31 (57.0299 WETH).
- CryptoPunks #6207 sold for $152,619.45 (43.99 ETH).
- CryptoPunks #4427 sold for $131,430.42 (36.9 ETH).
Investment and Financing/Acquisition
According to Fortune, Solari Capital, the venture capital firm founded by Skybridge founder Anthony Scaramucci and his son AJ Scaramucci, participated in a $220 million funding round in July for American Bitcoin, a Bitcoin mining company associated with the Trump family. Solari Capital invested over $100 million, and Anthony Scaramucci himself also invested a smaller amount, though both declined to disclose the specific amounts. Anthony Scaramucci reportedly served briefly as White House Communications Director in President Trump's first administration, but soon became a public critic of the president.
Institutional holdings
According to Decrypt, based on Form 13F filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as of September 30, Brown University (one of the eight prestigious Ivy League schools) held $13.8 million worth of IBIT stock; Emory University (selected for Forbes' 2024 "New Private Ivy League" list) held 1,023,417 shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, worth approximately $51.82 million. Emory University also disclosed holding 4,450 shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust, worth approximately $289,000.
Bitmine increased its holdings by 67,000 ETH in the past week, worth over $234 million.
According to The Data Nerd, Bitmine acquired 67,021 ETH (approximately $234.47 million) from platforms such as Galaxy Digital, FalconX, and Coinbase in the past week.
