Author: Nancy, PANews

After more than two decades of waiting, Musk has finally brought SpaceX to the capital market.

"It's hard to believe that a company that started as a small warehouse in El Segundo is now having the biggest IPO in history. We hope that in the future, anyone who wants to go to the moon, anyone who wants to go to Mars, or even any corner of the solar system, will have the opportunity to do so. Someday, we hope to take you there, not just a few astronauts. Whoever you are, SpaceX hopes to take you to the moon, take you to Mars, and ultimately go beyond that. I am now very confident that with this amazing team at SpaceX, we will make all of this a reality in the near future," Musk said via video link from Starbase headquarters in Texas at the SpaceX Nasdaq bell-ringing ceremony.

On the evening of June 12, SpaceX officially rang the opening bell on Nasdaq, with the stock code "SPCX". By the close of trading, SpaceX's stock price had continued its strong upward trend, rising more than 30% intraday from its IPO price of $135, and finally closing up 19.22% at $160.95, giving it a total market capitalization of approximately $2.1 trillion, making it the sixth largest company in the United States by market capitalization.

This space giant, which had suffered three failed rocket launches and faced near-depleted cash flow, repeatedly pushed Musk to the brink of desperation. Now, it has successfully entered the public market with a record-breaking valuation, not only setting a new record for the world's largest IPO but also opening a new chapter for the commercial space industry.

Global capital rushed to buy rockets, but crypto users ultimately missed out.

On the eve of its IPO, Wall Street was already in SpaceX mode.

For this landmark IPO, SpaceX assembled a prestigious underwriting syndicate, with 23 Wall Street investment banks participating in the offering. Goldman Sachs served as the lead underwriter, with Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase among the other institutions involved.

In the competition for clients, top executives from several investment banks personally took to the streets, holding exclusive roadshows for ultra-wealthy and institutional clients. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America even displayed rocket models in their headquarters lobbies, and Elon Musk's mother, Maye Musk, appeared at JPMorgan Chase's roadshow. Market estimates suggest that this IPO is expected to bring underwriting banks over $500 million in underwriting revenue.

Some analysts point out that major investment banks not only hope to help SpaceX successfully complete its listing, but also expect to boost market confidence with this landmark IPO, creating a more favorable market environment for large IPOs such as OpenAI and Anthropic that are expected to follow.

From its long-term vision of multi-planetary civilizations to its massive commercialization of orbital AI, SpaceX's fervent roadshow has ignited investors' imaginations, drawing global capital. Multiple media outlets, citing market sources, reported that SpaceX's IPO garnered over $250 billion in subscription demand, far exceeding its planned fundraising of approximately $75 billion, representing an oversubscription rate of nearly four times.

Institutional investors were the main force behind this IPO, with approximately 1,000 institutional investors participating. BlackRock reportedly placed a single order exceeding $5 billion; Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds such as the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) also submitted orders worth billions of dollars.

Retail investor enthusiasm is equally high. Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that demand for SpaceX's retail offerings exceeded $100 billion, far exceeding the allocation available to retail investors. Under the current offering arrangements, it is expected that most retail applications will not receive full allocations, or may even fail to secure a single share.

Looking at the subscription results for crypto investors, the actual allocation was extremely limited, with almost all investors losing out, and only a few receiving a minimum guarantee. On Kraken, the average allocation was approximately 4.2786 SPCXx shares, equivalent to about $600 USD. Regardless of the subscription amount, it was essentially a universal allocation, with the remaining funds fully refunded. Gate used a pro-rata allocation, with a winning rate of approximately 3% of the subscription principal, resulting in a slightly better allocation compared to other platforms. Binance announced a full refund and additionally purchased $1 million worth of SPCXB tokens for an airdrop, averaging about $40 USD per person. Bitget also provided a full refund and distributed a $10 USD transaction fee coupon as compensation. Bybit, in addition to refunds, compensated users with a 10% annualized return on their deposited funds for four days.

Users who participated enthusiastically in the early stages ultimately ended up with nothing, receiving only full refunds or token compensation, sparking dissatisfaction and even turning some IPO-focused groups into rights-demand groups. The main reason for this phenomenon is that most exchanges rely on xStocks as the underlying asset provider, and the subscription demand from institutional and retail investors in this round significantly exceeded the underwriting quota, resulting in a substantial reduction in orders on many platforms, with some even being canceled.

However, this did not dampen the enthusiasm surrounding SpaceX. During the SPCX opening phase, trading did not proceed as scheduled at 9:30 AM Eastern Time, but was delayed. This is primarily due to the special mechanism of such mega-IPOs; exchanges typically initiate an opening cross-market auction process to centrally match buy and sell orders, balance supply and demand, and determine a reasonable opening price. This has also occurred in large IPOs such as Meta, Alibaba, and Figma.

In fact, to cope with the potential for record-breaking trading volumes and order processing pressure, Nasdaq, Citadel Securities, Jane Street, and S&P Global, among other institutions, conducted multiple rounds of internal drills and system stress tests weeks in advance. S&P Global stated that it has increased its processing capacity by approximately 200% over the past six weeks through system upgrades and real-time testing, adding that this is a special preparation to cope with the potentially unprecedented trading volume, and that such preparation is rare even in previous large-scale IPO projects.

Early-stage venture capitalists made a fortune, and even the cafeteria workers became incredibly wealthy.

Following SpaceX's trillion-dollar IPO, an unprecedented wave of wealth realization has begun.

For early investors who have accompanied SpaceX through its long growth cycle, this IPO has brought historic returns. For example, Google's SpaceX shares are expected to be worth over $100 billion; hedge fund D1 Capital Partners' shares are expected to be worth approximately $20 billion; legendary investor Ron Baron has participated in 27 rounds of SpaceX financing over the years, and his shareholding has risen to approximately $12 billion; while Andreessen Horowitz, a well-known Silicon Valley venture capital firm, is expected to receive its largest investment return since the company's inception, with its shareholding value expected to exceed $10 billion.

American university endowments have also benefited from this wealth feast. For example, about 10% of the University of North Carolina system's endowment has exposure to SpaceX; Washington University in St. Louis holds more than 15% of its SpaceX-related assets; and Stanford University also holds a considerable share of SpaceX.

Besides institutional investors, SpaceX employees have also reaped substantial returns. SpaceX currently employs approximately 22,000 people, plus hundreds of former employees. According to an analysis by investment platform Hill, about 400 current and former employees hold shares worth over $100 million, becoming a new generation of billionaires.

In addition to Elon Musk becoming the world's first trillionaire, SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell and CFO Bret Johnsen's shares are both expected to be worth over $1 billion. SpaceX director Antonio Gracias, a director and founder of Valor Equity Partners, holds shares worth approximately $68 billion; another director, Luke Nosek, is estimated to hold shares worth around $5 billion.

More than 4,400 employees became millionaires in this IPO. From rocket welders and manufacturing engineers to administrative staff and cafeteria workers, many shared in the benefits of the company's growth. According to the WSJ, many people initially received their stock when each share was worth less than $2, before SpaceX had even achieved rocket recovery. As the company went through multiple rounds of financing, stock splits, and continuous valuation increases, the value of their shares also increased significantly.

For example, former welder Juan Hernandez joined SpaceX in 2015 at a wage of $28 per hour and initially received about $10,000 in stock incentives. Although he sold some of his shares when the company was valued at about $36 billion, the remaining stock is still worth about $880,000. A former SpaceX engineer received stock incentives many years ago, which are now worth more than $28 million.

However, many employees missed out on greater potential for appreciation by selling their shares too early. According to the WSJ, some sold their shares to pay off their spouses' student loans, some used the proceeds to buy vacation homes for their parents, and others invested the funds in their own startups. These pragmatic choices caused them to miss out on wealth growth of tens or even hundreds of times.

Is the trillion-dollar space story really that expensive?

A company that is still burning through cash has become the world's most expensive IPO, and Musk's market capitalization has sparked debate in the market.

From a financial perspective, SpaceX is still far from reaching a mature and profitable stage. The prospectus shows that in the first quarter of this year, the company's revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to $4.69 billion, but the net loss for the quarter was still a staggering $4.28 billion. Since its founding in 2002, the company has accumulated losses of approximately $41.3 billion and frankly admitted in its prospectus that it may not be able to achieve sustained profitability in the future.

However, supporters argue that traditional profit models are insufficient to measure SpaceX's value. In their view, SpaceX is not just a rocket launch company, but a platform enterprise integrating satellite internet, artificial intelligence, and future space infrastructure, whose true value lies in its growth potential over the next few decades.

For example, technology analyst Daniel Newman stated that if investors take a five-year view, SpaceX's performance will be outstanding. The IPO price of $135 per share might seem expensive a year later, but in five years, it will likely be considered quite cheap. He revealed that he plans to buy a small amount on SpaceX's first day of trading to avoid missing out entirely due to short-term misjudgment; however, he also anticipates that the market may present a more favorable opportunity to build a position within the first 12 months after the IPO.

Oppenheimer currently holds an "outperform" rating on SpaceX and sets a 12-18 month target price of $190, representing approximately 40% upside from the IPO price of $135. New Street Research also offers an optimistic assessment, initiating coverage with a target price of $165, corresponding to approximately 22% upside.

According to sources familiar with the matter, SpaceX disclosed to investors that it has received investment-grade ratings from three major bond rating agencies, which could help it reduce costs when raising funds after its IPO.

However, there are also many doubts in the market. Valuation guru Aswath Damodaran believes that SpaceX is currently overpriced and he will not buy in immediately. He expects that after listing, it will repeat the script of Facebook and Uber's sharp correction (which once fell by more than 50%). He suggests waiting patiently for a lower price. The AI business makes SpaceX's story bigger but also increases volatility, and its short-term performance may be under pressure.

Wall Street commentator Jim Cramer believes that the main risk of SpaceX's IPO is not undersubscription, but rather that the short-term funds allocated to the company may cash out in the early stages of the listing, thereby amplifying stock price volatility.

Veteran short-seller James Chanos stated that SpaceX's highly anticipated IPO was driven more by investor enthusiasm for Elon Musk and ZAI than by financial fundamentals. He argued that the company's valuation could not be justified based on any reasonable business assumptions, making it an IPO propped up by hope and dreams.

On one hand, there's the financial reality of massive losses; on the other, there's the grand vision of reaching for the stars. As a pioneer in the space economy, SpaceX has no precedent to follow, and its future is shrouded in uncertainty. With the trillion-dollar mark already tolling, the market is beginning to price the space dream.

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