PANews presents market analysis every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, highlighting key changes in the global market through data and trend analysis. Covering macroeconomics, US stocks, precious metals, crude oil, and crypto assets, PANews provides insights into these key changes.

Macro Market

Overnight, the market narrative shifted from "escalation of war" to "peace agreement." Trump abruptly announced during trading hours that the planned military strike against Iran was being cancelled, stating that the US-Iran agreement was in its final stages and could be signed in Europe as early as this weekend. Risk appetite quickly returned, with global stocks, bonds, gold, and crypto assets rebounding in unison, while crude oil became the only asset subject to concentrated selling.

On the macroeconomic front, inflationary pressures persist. The US PPI rose 6.5% year-on-year in May, the largest increase since 2022, while core PPI, though slowing to 4.9%, remained well above the Federal Reserve's target range. The World Bank lowered its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 2.5% and warned that global growth could fall to 1.3% if Middle East energy supplies are further disrupted. Former Federal Reserve Chair and former US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the risk of US sovereign debt is severely underestimated by the market, and that the rationale for recent interest rate cuts has largely disappeared.

The situation in the Middle East remains central to market pricing. Trump claimed that Iran's Supreme Leader had agreed to an agreement and indicated that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen, but both Iranian officials and Israel have denied that an agreement has been reached. The market seems less concerned with whether an agreement is signed and more focused on whether the probability of escalation has decreased. Both WTI and Brent crude oil have fallen more than 5.9% from their highs to around $85 and $87 respectively. Frank Monkam, head of strategy at Buffalo Bayou, believes that Trump's constantly changing messages are weakening oil traders' willingness to take risks.

After a period of sharp volatility, precious metals rallied dramatically, with spot gold surging 3.4% to recover to $4212.26, while silver soared 6.2% to return above $67. With the CME announcing plans to launch 24/7 gold futures trading on July 26, the market is betting on further increases in precious metal volatility.

Regarding the recent phenomenon of "central banks increasing their gold reserves against the trend, yet gold prices weakening," a report from the European Central Bank earlier this month showed that gold's share in global official reserves will rise to 27% by the end of 2025, surpassing US Treasury bonds. Experts analyze that the recent gold price fluctuations are mainly due to the accumulated downward pressure from the continuous surge in gold prices between 2024 and 2025. Simultaneously, rising energy prices triggered by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up inflation expectations, and the market anticipates a possible interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, thus suppressing the upside potential of gold prices .

Economist Thorsten Polliet optimistically stated that the recent pullback is a natural correction after a rapid rise, not the end of the bull market. Even if gold prices fall back to $3,900-$4,000, it will still be a highly attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors with a five-year or longer horizon. However, FX Empire analyst Christopher Lewis warned that $4,000 for gold and $60 for silver are the core support levels for the current market. If gold effectively breaks below $4,000, the downside potential could extend to $3,500 ; while if silver falls below $60, it could potentially test the $50 range.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield plunged 10 basis points to 4.45%, and the dollar index fell nearly 0.8% from its daily high. Tony Farren, managing director of Mischler Financial, said that lower-than-expected core inflation, excluding the energy shock, has at least temporarily changed sentiment in the bond market.

Europe also signaled a hawkish stance. The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, increasing the deposit rate from 2.0% to 2.25% and the main refinancing rate to 2.4%, reflecting renewed inflation in Europe due to energy price shocks.

The following needs to be paid attention to:

Whether the US-Iran agreement is implemented on June 13-14 will directly affect crude oil, gold, and global risk assets.
At the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on June 18, the market currently expects a 98.5% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged. This decision and Powell's speech will directly determine the market's pricing of the interest rate cut path in the second half of the year. If hawkish signals are released, it may trigger a stock market correction.

US Stock Market Update

Following Trump's peace signals, the three major U.S. stock indexes surged collectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 929.97 points to 50,848.75, a gain of 1.86%; the S&P 500 rose 1.75% to 7,394.30; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.54% to 25,809.66. The Nasdaq 100 index even jumped by about 3.5%, marking its best single-day performance in over a year.

The core theme of the market remains AI. Despite the Nasdaq 100 losing $2.7 trillion in market capitalization over seven trading days, funds haven't left the tech sector; instead, they're waiting for a new narrative catalyst. With falling oil prices and declining yields, valuation pressures on growth stocks have eased rapidly.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 7.91%, marking its biggest single-day gain since April 2025. Intel rose over 9%, Micron Technology over 11%, ASML over 9%, Arm over 11%, and AMD nearly 8%. Driving the rally was not only a recovery in risk appetite but also Bank of America's upgrade of Intel's rating from "underperform" to "buy," with a target price of $135.

Tonight, the focus of global markets is undoubtedly SpaceX's IPO . The company raised $75 billion at an offering price of $135 per share, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history. The market was oversubscribed by more than 2 times, and Polymarket reported a 77% probability that the company's market capitalization would surpass $2 trillion on its first day of trading.

However, renowned short seller James Chanos believes that the current valuation reflects investors' enthusiasm for Elon Musk and AI more than the fundamentals. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan, on the other hand, calls SpaceX "the only vertically integrated AI company," initially setting its investment rating at "outperform" with a target price of $190, implying that SpaceX could rise by about 40% from its IPO price after listing, boosting its market capitalization to $2.5 trillion.

As a super unicorn, the strength of its initial public offering (IPO) funding will directly determine the risk appetite of the US stock market in the summer. If it falls below its IPO price, it will have a devastating psychological impact on the entire AI sector.

Cryptocurrency

After Trump signaled a softening stance, BTC rebounded from around $61,000 to above $63,500, but the market has not yet escaped its bearish structure. The key support and resistance levels currently being watched are around $60,000 and $65,000, respectively.

BTC is currently still fluctuating between $61,000 and $64,000, and needs to wait for a new direction. Only a break above the $64,000 area will give the market a chance to retest $70,000.

It is worth noting that a large number of low-leverage short positions are concentrated in the $64,000-$66,000 range. Binance's spot order book shows a sell wall of about $37.7 million around $64,900. Meanwhile, options market data shows that $2.23 billion worth of BTC options are expiring today, with the biggest pain point at $66,000.

Cointelegraph data shows that the market has begun to question BTC's function as a "safe-haven asset" in the stock market, and it is not impossible for Bitcoin to fall below $60,000 if risk assets correct again. Analyst Killa believes that once it falls below $60,700, the logic for a short-term rebound will fail.

Today’s highlights:

Avalanche Treasury Company (AVAT) officially listed on Nasdaq.
Binance will launch five bStocks trading pairs, including Circle, Nvidia, and Tesla, in the early morning of June 12th.
Binance will allow users to place whole-share limit orders for SPCX stock starting at 17:05 on June 12.
Futu: Starting June 12, existing accounts will be suspended from buying (opening) positions within China.
Tiger International: Starting June 12, new openings and additional position additions for all instruments held by existing investor accounts within China will be suspended.
Binance will support a planned upgrade to its stock trading service on June 13.
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: WLD, XRP, BTC, ID, ETH
Bitcoin spot ETF: -$19.0265 million, marking the fifth consecutive day of net outflows.
Ethereum spot ETF: -$15.8894 million, marking the third consecutive day of net outflows.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: VELVET up 86.6%, LAB up 35%, H up 34.2%, XMR up 16.3%, and DEXE up 10.9%.

Asia Pacific Market Report

The Japanese market became a major beneficiary of the tech rebound. The Nikkei 225 index surged as much as 4%, and the Topix rose 1.4%. Markets bet that easing Middle East risks would alleviate energy cost pressures, while a nearly 8% surge in the US semiconductor sector directly boosted Japanese tech stocks. However, the real risks have not disappeared. The Bank of Japan will hold its policy meeting on June 16, with the market widely expecting a 25 basis point rate hike to 1%. As Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is absent due to illness, Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will host the press conference, raising concerns that his remarks could trigger a new round of yen carry trade unwinding.

The violent surge in the South Korean stock market triggered a trading circuit breaker, with the KOSPI index jumping 7% intraday. Samsung Electronics soared 10%, and SK Hynix jumped 9%, with the latter's unusual equipment purchase price increase igniting positive expectations across the entire industry chain. Supporting the rally wasn't just the AI boom, but also a surge in South Korean export data: exports in the first 10 days of June increased by 85.9% year-on-year, with semiconductor exports skyrocketing by 205.8%, accounting for nearly 40% of total exports.

Both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks opened higher , with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.75%, the ChiNext Index up 0.5%, and the STAR Market Composite Index up 2.58% . Semiconductors, commercial aerospace, and precious metals sectors led the gains.

Commercial spaceflight has become the strongest theme. SpaceX's upcoming IPO has boosted sentiment, with Tongyi Aerospace hitting the 30% daily limit and Chenxi Aviation hitting the 20% daily limit. Other stocks such as AVIC High-Tech, Aerospace Development, and Tian'ao Electronics also hit their daily limits.
The semiconductor sector also saw a surge. Fuxin Technology, Shenggong Technology, and Blue Arrow Electronics all hit their 20% daily limit, while Hong Kong-listed chip stocks such as Huahong Grace, Montage Technology, and SMIC generally rose by more than 7%.
The precious metals sector remained active. Shenglong Co., Ltd. hit the daily limit, while Hunan Baiyin, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and Zijin Mining followed suit.

With the start of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico (opening match: Mexico 2-0 South Africa, South Korea 2-1 Czech Republic), discussions about the "World Cup curse" have resurfaced in the A-share market . Historical data shows that since 1994, the Shanghai Composite Index has tended to decline more often than rise during tournaments, with a significant decrease in trading volume. In response, several securities firms, including Guoxin Securities and Zheshang Securities, stated that the "curse" is not an ironclad rule. Furthermore, themes directly driven by the tournament, such as food and beverage, late-night snacks and tea, and hotel entertainment rooms—the "tournament economy"—are expected to attract short-term speculative capital during periods of low earnings performance.

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