PANews reported on March 4th that, according to a macro briefing released by Binance Research, a review of eight major energy supply disruptions between 1979 and 2019 reveals a two-stage oil price pattern: The first stage is the "hesitation period" (0-30 days), where market pricing is driven by uncertainty rather than scarcity, with a historical average increase of only about 2%. However, Brent crude oil has already risen by 9% on the fifth day of the current conflict, indicating that the market has pre-priced in tail risks. The second stage is the "scarcity digestion period" (30-360 days), which begins when Gulf countries are forced to halt production after their 25-day inventory buffer is exhausted, with a historical average increase of 44%, and in extreme cases reaching 110%-140%.

The report points out that the daily oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from the normal 16 million barrels to 4 million barrels. Gulf countries have only 25 days' worth of reserves left, and oil fields will be forced to shut down when storage tank utilization reaches the critical threshold of 85%. Oil prices will then enter an accelerated phase of "digestion digestion." If oil prices remain between $85 and $95, a 30-40 basis point increase in CPI is manageable; if oil prices rise to $115-$130, CPI will rise by 110-150 basis points, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut may be delayed until 2027; if oil prices break through $180, CPI will rise by more than 300 basis points, potentially triggering stagflation. Bitcoin currently maintains a correlation of over 0.9 with tech stocks. If oil prices continue to rise above $110, a CPI increase to 3% and a real interest rate exceeding 2.5% will trigger a sell-off in tech stocks. At that point, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks may break, triggering a shift in the "digital gold" narrative. Key indicators to watch include: shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, inventory utilization rates in Gulf countries, CPI data on March 11, Fed guidance on March 18, whether the real interest rate on 10-year TIPS exceeds 2.5%, whether the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the IGV index falls below 0.5, and whether ETF fund flows turn into net inflows.