Trading Time: US stock markets will be closed next Monday; Bitcoin is fluctuating between $76,000 and $78,000, searching for a direction.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

Following news of the final draft agreement between the US and Iran, the oil market experienced significant volatility. WTI crude oil surged as much as 4.5% intraday before quickly plunging, breaking below the 50-day moving average. The drop in oil prices provided a respite for US stocks, with all three major indices rebounding. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.55%, hitting a record high; the Nasdaq Composite narrowly closed up 0.09% at 26,293.10 points; and the S&P 500 edged up 0.17%. Jason Pride, head of strategy at Glenmede, pointed out that the market has no surprises after earnings season, and short-term direction will be entirely determined by substantial developments in the Iranian situation.

Meanwhile, newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh was officially sworn in at 11 p.m. on May 22. This leader, who firmly believes inflation stems from excessive government spending, advocates rebuilding the central bank's credibility, leading to increasingly pessimistic market expectations for interest rate cuts this year . Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos points out that the market's focus has completely shifted from rate cuts to a reassessment of the possibility of rate hikes, and Warsh's policy path is fraught with uncertainty.

South Korean stocks opened higher but briefly fell before rebounding. On the news front, the South Korean government plans to invest excess tax revenue from the semiconductor industry into a sovereign wealth fund to be established in the second half of this year, potentially increasing its initial capital from 20 trillion won to nearly 30 trillion won. The fund bill will be submitted to parliament for review in June, but the specific sources of funding and investment directions have not yet been determined. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 2.73% , but the yen hovered around the 159 level against the dollar, raising concerns about potential intervention. With US, Hong Kong, and South Korean stock markets closed for a holiday on May 25 , the resulting liquidity shortage is amplifying the risk of yen intervention. Neil Jones, Managing Director of TJM Europe, warned that the Japanese Ministry of Finance might launch a surprise intervention in the foreign exchange market on Monday.

AI and the Stock Market

Despite Nvidia's better-than-expected second-quarter revenue guidance and announcement of an $80 billion share buyback program, its stock price still fell 1.77% after the earnings report. Goldman Sachs analyst Peter Callahan said that for a giant with a market capitalization of over $5.4 trillion, a single earnings report is unlikely to have a significant impact on its stock price.

Fueled by the Trump administration's $2 billion Chip and Science Act subsidies, the quantum computing sector experienced a surge. IBM received a $1 billion investment, causing its stock price to jump 12.4%; D-Wave Quantum soared 33.4%; Rigetti Computing and Infleqtion both rose by over 30%. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna stated that quantum computing is on the eve of the AI chip explosion a decade ago.

Competition is equally fierce in the chip and memory sectors. AMD spent a whopping $10 billion to mass-produce its EPYC processors using TSMC's 2nm process; Arm's stock price surged 16.16%, pushing its market capitalization above $300 billion, resulting in a profit of over $220 billion for SoftBank Group, which holds an 87% stake. SanDisk CEO David Goeckeler predicted a long-term supply shortage in the flash memory market, driving SanDisk's stock price up 10.75% , while Western Digital and Micron Technology also saw strong gains.

SoftBank Group's stock price surged over 12% . This followed news that OpenAI plans to list in the US, and its affiliate SB Energy will also file for an IPO. Notably, SoftBank previously invested over $60 billion in OpenAI, holding approximately a 13% stake.

However, high inflation has had a significant impact on the consumer sector. Walmart's stock price plummeted 7.3%, and its CFO, John David Rainey, warned that high oil prices are severely squeezing low-income consumers and could lead to higher retail inflation in the second half of the year. Costco's stock price followed suit, falling 2.2%. Meanwhile, Intuit's stock price plunged 20% due to weak tax filing business and a 17% layoff plan.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin is currently struggling in the $76,000 to $78,000 range. On-chain data shows that while Bitcoin briefly recovered to its true market average of $78,300, spot demand remains weak, with apparent demand falling to a four-month low of -3,138 coins. The options market is also turbulent, with $1.53 billion worth of BTC options expiring today, with a maximum resistance level of $79,000; and on May 29th, a staggering $6.25 billion worth of options will settle, with a maximum resistance level of $75,000, as some traders are betting on a breakout above $82,000. Meanwhile, the supply from long-term holders has surged by 2 million coins, bringing total holdings to 16.3 million, nearing an all-time high.

However, Bitcoin did not rise in tandem with US stocks. Even with a slight rebound yesterday, traditional institutions continued to sell. Furthermore, high oil prices and expectations of a Fed rate hike (the probability of a September hike has risen to 37%) continued to exert downward pressure, leading to net outflows of over $2.17 billion from US spot ETFs since May 12th. Billionaire Mark Cuban even sold off most of his Bitcoin holdings due to a failed hedging narrative.

Bearish view

Core logic: The combination of macroeconomic contraction and dwindling spot demand, coupled with technical resistance at key moving averages, indicates that the market is entering a prolonged period of downward fluctuation or a deep consolidation phase.

Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, said market sentiment has turned “extremely pessimistic” and the market is mirroring the 2022 bear market. The 200-day moving average around $82,400 is acting as strong resistance, and demand for both spot and perpetual contracts has contracted sharply.
Glassnode: Spot CVD continues to be negative, and the lag in Coinbase activities highlights the weak participation of US institutions; the profit-loss ratio has surged to 1.8 on the 30th, indicating that demand is insufficient to absorb the selling pressure from profit-taking. If it falls below the recent support of $71,400, it will confirm a local top.
Killa: The market has entered a time-based consolidation and capitulation phase. As long as the price is below $79,100, the structure is a bearish correction, and it is expected to fall below $75,000 or even reach $74,000 soon.
Kaz: Internal data for the $76,000 to $78,000 range is deteriorating, with open interest (OI) continuing to bleed and spot CVD turning downwards. Without new long positions, a liquidity cleanup of $74,000 to $75,000 is imminent.
Astronomer: The high above $70,000 was rejected, which constitutes a "trap this week," and the price will follow suit and look for liquidity at $75,000.
LP: The bottoms of the past three bear markets were accompanied by repeated clearing of lows, while the current market is only slowly rising. Therefore, $60,000 is very likely not a true high-time-level bottom.

bullish view

Core logic: The bottom structure has been established. The short-term pullback and consolidation are just the initial accumulation of strength in the bull market. Liquidity clearing and institutional fixed investment will drive prices to break through to higher ranges.

Former Glassnode analyst Checkmate: The average inflow cost for Strategy, ETFs, and miner production costs is between $75,000 and $82,000. $78,000 is the short-term cost base and the true market average price, representing the first resistance level for price increases. $85,000 (midpoint of the supply concentration zone) and $95,000 (near the 50-week moving average) are key resistance levels. The market needs a correction before fully entering a "buy the dip" mode. The core driver of price increases is the continuous inflow of incremental funds.
Cointelegraph: More than $4 billion in short liquidation has accumulated above $80,000, with a bullish divergence and head and shoulders bottom pattern forming around $76,100. Leveraged traders are driving a short squeeze toward $80,000.
Murphy: Based on historical cycles, the average cost of dollar-cost averaging during periods of panic is approximately $81,000. As long as the cost is below this level, long-term holding is relatively safe. Investors are advised to patiently wait for the market to recover.
Castillo Trading: Since early April, exchanges including Binance have stopped aggressively selling spot assets. Although there is resistance at $78,000 to $79,000, the overall trend remains bullish.
Tryrex: Although both long and short positions have been quickly corrected, the bears lack a clear rallying cry, and the market is very likely to see a rebound towards $78,500 or even $79,000.
Lennaert Snyder: The previous daily low of $76,500 provided solid support, and the intraday bias remains bullish within the broader downtrend on higher timeframes.
CJ: Currently focusing on the high of the $78,500 range and the low of the $76,000 range, remain on the sidelines and wait for a directional move before a breakout from this consolidation range.

Market Dynamics

HYPE remains a hot commodity in the market, with its price briefly breaking through $62, setting a new all-time high. On-chain data shows that institutions are frantically buying up shares regardless of cost.

Grayscale: Purchased over 680,000 HYPE tokens (approximately $34.9 million) in the past week.
Bitwise: Since the launch of the HYPE ETF last Friday, it has been continuously purchasing and pledging HYPE, and currently has a paper profit of $5 million. Bitwise and 21Shares' spot HYPE ETFs saw a net inflow of $61.43 million this week.
Galaxy Digital: Its affiliated wallet spent a whopping $8.8 million to buy 158,100 HYPE tokens.
Anchorage: It has purchased a total of 2.527 million HYPE tokens (worth $140 million) in the past month, all of which have been used for staking.

Key data (as of 14:00 HKT on May 22)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: -$101 million, marking the fifth consecutive day of net outflows.
Ethereum ETF: -$32.577 million, marking the 9th consecutive day of net outflows.
SOL ETF: +$3.8569 million
XRP ETF: +$8.8843 million
HYPE ETF: +$16.1505 million
Fear of Greed Index: 28 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: PROVE, XRP, BTC, ONDO, ETH
Sector Performance: DePIN rose 3.3%, NFT rose 2.89%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 64,396 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $176 million, including $40.1999 million in BTC liquidations, $27.1358 million in ETH liquidations, and $25.5964 million in HYPE liquidations.

Today's Outlook

Warsh will be sworn in as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve at 11 p.m. on May 22.
OpenAI is reportedly filing for an IPO as early as this Friday, with a valuation exceeding $850 billion.
A UK court has allowed victims of the Blue Sky GREE incident to register their evidence with the High Court by May 22.
Cardano's ecosystem NFT marketplace, JPG Store, has announced it will close on May 23.
US, Hong Kong, and South Korean stock markets will be closed for a public holiday (May 25).
MBG (MBG) will unlock approximately 27.15 million tokens, worth approximately $8.7 million, on May 22.
SoSoValue (SOSO) will unlock approximately 13.32 million tokens, worth about $5 million, on May 22.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: NEAR Protocol up 25.70%, Aerodrome Finance up 10.30%, Worldcoin up 10.10%, ASI Alliance up 8.50%, and Morpho up 6.90%.