Author: Da Yu

I didn't sleep a wink last night, tears soaked the sheets. I shouted at the night sky, "Is the crypto world just going to keep trading these garbage coins? If so, they'll all die together, and all the retail investors will be wiped out!"

I think I should do some user education to tell everyone, especially newbies, which coins are still worth buying and which ones are not. Only when we refuse to buy these worthless coins can we force the crypto market to develop healthily and force market makers to realize that making people buy worthless coins is no longer profitable. They need to find ways to create projects that are truly useful and generate income for people. Only then will the crypto market have a future.

I will use the most cautious language possible so that readers are more likely to make money than lose money.

I. Current Situation and Coin Selection Logic

The current cryptocurrency market is mainly about two things: "creating shit" and "feeding shit."

"Shit-making" refers to projects without profitability. They tell a story, spend some money, get listed on some exchanges, and then wait for retail investors to take over. They fleece VCs and retail investors through market making and other means. Only the exchanges make money. So if this continues, the industry will definitely fail.

Your past approach to this kind of play was acceptable because the cryptocurrency world is a big casino, and we could make money as long as we had the opportunity.

Back then, there were very few cryptocurrencies, and most people didn't have much investment experience. They didn't have any concept of high or low valuations. They would just rush in, and with people rushing in, prices would rise or fall, and some people would make money while others would lose money. That's how it was.

Back then, we didn't understand, but we had beautiful dreams and truly felt that the crypto world was changing the future. But now, seeing the booming development of AI and US stocks, and arguing heatedly about which piece of crap is listed on an exchange, we finally understand how ridiculous, pathetic, and lamentable we are in the crypto world.

Why is this way of playing no longer viable? Because there are too many coins now.

Those with connections can work under Binance, handling everything from token issuance and marketing to listing on Binance; those without connections can simply launch their tokens on PUMPFUN and then sell their garbage on Twitter.

The number of cryptocurrencies has increased 100,000 times in the past 5 years, but the growth in the number of users has peaked. Binance's annual report says that one in every 20 people uses Binance, which is good for Binance, but it is also why the industry is starting to feel that it is unsustainable. The growth of new users is eventually declining, and problems will arise when there are fewer and fewer new users in the industry.

We can't expect anyone to do something; that's incredibly stupid—while the rich feast on meat and wine, who cares about the barking of a stray dog on the street?

People need to be self-reliant, and the cryptocurrency world needs to be self-reliant.

The first step to self-reliance is to have fewer people buying into worthless cryptocurrencies.

Next, I'll go from "how to choose" to "what to choose," and in one article, I'll help you navigate the cryptocurrency world with ease and confidence.

I'm here, damn it! Let's go!

II. Several Evaluation Principles

I will explain this part in detail, which may be a bit difficult for beginners to read. Although I recommend that you read it carefully and understand it sooner or later, if you don't understand it now, you can skip to Part 3 to see the list of coins.

1. Must have revenue

If a cryptocurrency project doesn't generate real revenue or have any users, what's the point of its coin? How can it be empowered? It's completely useless. It's listed on a major exchange, just waiting for you to take over, and then you expect the idiots in the next group to take over your losses.

Stop! Don't play these kinds of games anymore.

When a new project comes out, don't listen to the hype about terms you don't understand. You don't need to know a bunch of letters and strange terms to understand great companies like Apple and Tesla, right?

A project with no revenue or users is basically garbage. Don't care who the other party is or what firm they're affiliated with—because those people and firms are there to rip you off, not to make you rich.

Remember this: the bigger the background, the more ruthless the cuts.

2. There must be development.

Looking at revenue and user numbers alone isn't enough; project teams now understand that they need to inflate those numbers.

Back in the day, the four kings of L2 were so great, their data was so amazing. But what happened? Once the farming stopped, they became ghost towns, and some of them still haven't issued coins.

Therefore, we should use common sense to see if there is long-term development potential, rather than just looking at the data.

The current state of the cryptocurrency market is such that if a project is innovative, a bunch of copycat projects immediately appear. Some have connections, some don't. Everyone is just using token issuance to attract people to participate, creating a false sense of prosperity.

If you want to make money, learn from the experts at profiting from promotions and start profiting, not from those who are simply taking over the losses. Projects with real potential are those where people actually use the services after you've completed the promotion, or even those where you don't need to do it at all—no points, no manipulation, just free access.

Some people say this is a characteristic of Web3, but Web2 projects didn't require any manipulation; all that came out were impressive projects. Why is that? You'll understand if you think about it from a common-sense perspective: people who really want to build projects don't want fake data.

What impressed me most about Wang Xing of Meituan was that he won out over thousands of group-buying websites back then. While the others were all fabricating data and traffic, which were many times that of Meituan, Wang Xing insisted on not creating any fake data, such as raising prices first and then offering discounts. He believed that the market was huge and that by providing higher-quality products, he could have the last laugh – he did the right thing.

What if you want to buy in the secondary market? Let's go back to the principles in this section and compare and evaluate them. If you're buying in the secondary market, you need to know who's promoting the project, your cost needs to be lower than the market price, you need to assess whether there are more fools willing to take over, and you also need to know when to take profits.

If you're a complete novice and don't understand anything, don't follow my method to buy. You don't know anything about evaluation and dynamic observation; just buy Bitcoin.

3. The currency must be useful.

No matter how much money a project makes, cryptocurrency isn't a stock, and you're not a shareholder, so it's still worthless. Don't touch it. Because in this situation, cryptocurrency is just a speculative commodity, unrelated to the project's fundamentals, and entirely dependent on what fools think and do.

For example, if a top overseas influencer says, "I'm bullish on ZEC," everyone rushes in. In this case, those who believe and rush in first make money. As for the project itself having no income or the coin being useless, you don't need to research that much. Believe first, get burned, then believe later.

But if you don't have any income and the coins are useless, and you still buy them, you'll definitely wonder: why did the price stop rising as soon as I got on board?

Therefore, with a long-term perspective, we need to return to these principles: How much money will the project make? Does it have a future? Is it pegged to a cryptocurrency?

4. How are profits and coin prices calculated?

Let's take $HYPE, the leading project in the perpetual contract sector, as an example to calculate. By the way, this is the best altcoin project in the crypto world, but if you bought it for over 50, aren't you dumbfounded now? The estimation method in this section is suitable for beginners to study carefully.

For example, if I decide to buy HYPE, how do I evaluate this project that has revenue, users, and a future?

Step 1: See how much money he's making now, and what his total market capitalization is.

If $HYPE earns $2 billion a year, and the total circulating market capitalization is $20 billion, then we can assume that the total circulating market capitalization/revenue = 10, and the coin price is around 20. Referring to tech stocks, a PE ratio of 10 is not high, indicating that it might be acceptable.

But now that he's not earning $2 billion a year, it seems reasonable for the price of the coin to be below $20?

But why did it rise above 50? This part deviates from the fundamentals, and there are many reasons for this, mainly:

—He is the leader, so people are more likely to FOMO (fear of missing out) when he is the leader, so the price goes up, especially since there is a lot of gullible money in the crypto market.

— He uses 100% of his revenue to buy back tokens. His order book is very thin, with $2 million in buy orders every day. As long as there aren't many sellers on a given day, the price is likely to rise.

Therefore, a rise to 50 is very reasonable in a bull market.

But is it a good time to buy now? We need to consider some new internal variables:

For example, the team tokens have started to unlock. Although the daily buybacks are still ongoing, if the unlocked tokens are $10 million and the buyback tokens are $2 million, then you can understand that the selling pressure is $8 million per day. HYPE's current situation is that the selling pressure is far greater than the buyback.

In addition, external variables must also be considered:

The first variable: External competition is becoming more intense.

For example, Lighter and others have similar team backgrounds, financial strength, and institutional investment. Hype is like a cashback, while LIT is somewhat like Robinhood. There's also CZ's ASTER and a bunch of new perpetual contracts.

This leads to a problem: external competition is getting stronger, and is this competition effective? Yes, it is. Just look at the on-chain data; HYPE's market dominance has been significantly reduced.

Moreover, the competition will only become more intense, making things even more difficult.

You're looking for a girlfriend, and she was originally a fairy, but suddenly five more have jumped out and want to be your girlfriend too, and they're even fighting each other. One is trying to steal your heart, and the other is trying to steal your peach. You'd better not go for it yet, or you might choose the wrong one...

The second variable: Existing funds are limited, and it's still uncertain who will get the incremental funds.

The amount of capital in the cryptocurrency market is limited. In other words, there are only so many people and so much money in the cryptocurrency market right now. What is the maximum size of this combination of smart money and gullible money?

I think it's more accurate to use Trump as the anchor for assessment, which is $70 billion, and then there's no more money.

The perpetual contract sector is far less popular and attracts as many buyers as Trump, so its potential value is likely to be 40-50 billion.

This is exactly the market capitalization of HYPE at that time, after the pullback. Now, with fierce competition, similar to Meituan and JD.com fighting, everyone's stock is falling. Coupled with the bear market, it is reasonable for the total market capitalization of the sector to be around 30 billion.

With a total market capitalization of 30 billion:

If there are only one or two targets, then a leader with 25 billion is acceptable.

What if there are 10 targets? What percentage would the leading company account for?

Therefore, if it's just internal competition within the crypto space, there aren't many ways to make money: the main way is to exploit projects that haven't issued their own tokens yet, but there will definitely be counter-exploitation later, so not participating isn't necessarily a bad thing; the second way is to see which project can capture the most traffic from the future US stock market's blockchain integration. If the crypto market stops exploiting retail investors and starts exploiting US stock market retail investors, then that project will succeed.

5. Summary

In short: whether or not to buy a coin depends on how much money it can make now, how much it can make in the future, how much of that money will be used to drive up the price, and how intense the internal and external competition is.

III. Coin Selection List

Catching three or four coins during a market cycle is enough to turn your fortunes around, but making a mistake with just one can lead to devastating losses. This list is certainly not exhaustive; there may be some decent projects I haven't included. After all, I'm writing this on an empty stomach. I'll update the list in the comments section if I think of any more later.

If you have any good recommendations, please feel free to comment below. However, regardless of who recommends them, please do not make your own judgments lightly. This includes the coins I selected. You should refer to the models I mentioned above. These are not universal formulas and may be somewhat mechanical and not applicable to certain projects, such as the upward logic of public chains. But overall, they are designed to help you avoid making mistakes.

Note: You must read the text carefully when selecting a coin. Just because I've listed the coin's name doesn't mean you can buy it now! A good project needs a good price!

You need to use the valuation methods I mentioned above. For example, the method above allowed me to buy HYPE at 10 and sell it at 30 or 50 (the buying and selling logic is explained in detail in my group; this isn't just me bragging). Now let's begin.

1. BTC

Newcomers might look down on it, but if you could only choose one coin in the crypto world, this would definitely be it. Although it doesn't seem to be appreciating now, it could easily reach 200,000 in the future.

If you're a complete beginner with no knowledge, investing 80,000 to 90,000 coins now won't hurt you or make you a fool of yourself. Take this first, and while you frantically catch up on your studies, buy smaller amounts of other coins. You can't go wrong.

2. ETH

The biggest future development in the cryptocurrency world will come from institutions putting US stocks and bonds on the blockchain. After that, Wall Street and US retail investors can trade on-chain stocks. This is ETH's biggest advantage, making it the second largest cryptocurrency.

However, I've never been particularly interested in it, so I don't personally hold much of it. I've also researched US stocks, and if you look at it as a tech stock, then according to my model above, it's really not that great.

With a market capitalization of hundreds of billions and unlimited issuance, even those who stake will accumulate more and more coins. Buying this coin is somewhat like taking over a dump, which I personally find pointless. Those currently bullish on it are exhibiting FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), believing it to be a revolutionary innovation and a great thing, but I'm unsure if the price has sufficient certainty.

For example, its market value is now higher than Musk's space company SPACE, which makes a lot of money every year and will make even more money in the future. It plans to build a base on Mars, transform Earthlings into a multi-planetary race, mine massive amounts of gold in outer space, and develop energy. At a similar price, I would definitely buy SPACE.

This surge in ETH prices is mainly due to top institutions in both the East and West advocating for and buying together. However, the fundamentals of ETH will not change because of these factors. If you believe them, get on board early and find a good entry point to exit when the price is right. Having the money in your own hands is the right thing to do.

As for the future outlook of ETH, such as becoming a base for on-chain finance, I agree. However, I only care about how much money ETH can make, how much ETH that money can buy back, and how much buying pressure it generates. Otherwise, it's still just a game of emotions and consensus—something I'm very good at as someone who has made the most money in this field. My choice is that I won't gamble on this piece of junk with the big players on such a large issue. You guys shout, you guys play, you guys make money.

3. BNB

$BNB remains the best among all CEX platform tokens.

However, I no longer recommend it. The future belongs to the on-chain era. In five years, the largest trading venue may no longer be Binance, but on-chain exchanges. As a BNB holder, the old way of holding BNB and receiving token airdrops was a win-win situation. Now, it's just a cycle of getting nothing but garbage, which is pointless. In addition, Binance's business model is to constantly bring in new users, using contracts and worthless coins. This zero-sum game is bound to decline after its peak.

But note that I'm not saying whether BNB will rise or not. With high control and the wealthiest institutions in the crypto world, it will definitely rise. It's just that it's no longer my ideal target. If I had to choose between ETH and BNB, I would definitely choose ETH, but I didn't choose ETH.

As for $OKB , the short-lived coin has become a classic, but without any acquisition or empowerment, it's best to temporarily classify it as a junk coin.

4. Other public blockchains

There's not much to say for now, including SOL and other coins. Many of them have seen very rapid issuance. For example, SOL's price has dropped a lot now, but its market capitalization is about the same as at its peak. If MEME doesn't work out, I'll stop playing it for now.

Public blockchains are likely to become important but not very profitable infrastructure, because if you take a lot of money, many people will leave, the speed will be fast, and zero free access will become the standard.

5. MEME Coin

My advice is to stop buying any MEME coins for now. Anyone who's currently recommending any MEME coin or trying to find a angle to promote it is basically saying, "Come and eat my shit."

I don't see any opportunities for the time being. If you want to gamble, just gamble a little for fun, like buying a scratch-off lottery ticket. There's nothing wrong with that.

Next, let's talk about altcoins. 99.99% of altcoins are worthless with no income and no future. I'll pick out a few that you can slowly buy in small amounts and hold for the long term. You shouldn't lose money. It would be better if you could use the valuation method in the second paragraph to find a suitable price.

I can only tell you about good targets, not good prices—because when you look at the model for each coin, you need to look at the coin itself, and also dynamically monitor external competition and the external environment. Basically, even good projects need to be observed as they develop.

What if you don't want to keep looking around? Buy BTC, then go play, go to work, what's there to look at?

6. On-chain sustainable track

This sector is a real casino, with revenue and buybacks. The biggest opportunity in the future comes from outside the sector, namely Wall Street institutions and US stock retail investors.

$HYPE

This is relatively simple. As mentioned above, I think that unless there are major problems or strong competitors in the future, it shouldn't be difficult to hold at this price for too long.

The selling pressure from the unlocking of shares over the next year or so is significant. Many retail investors hope that the team won't sell, which is actually an unkind and selfish thought. Team members should receive rewards, and it would be better if they sold. If you are truly optimistic about the stock, you shouldn't be hoping that others won't sell, but rather hoping that the price will be lower.

$LIT

LIT is HYPE's direct competitor in this track, and even has greater advantages, simply because it entered the market later.

Both teams have the same background of top-tier quantitative trading and geniuses, but HYPE only deals with smart money and whales, targeting large investors and institutions; LIT is more like ROBINHOOD, targeting retail investors.

HYPE doesn't have venture capital and focuses on a community-driven approach; LIT has partnered with Castle Market Maker and ROBINHOOD for investment, and its founder and ROBINHOOD's owner are classmates and fellow townsmen with a very close relationship. Overall, LIT follows the Wall Street institutional and compliance-oriented approach.

In terms of architecture, HYPE is its own chain and ecosystem, closed within the HYPE world; LIT is an open ETH ecosystem that can directly accept all RWA assets in the future. For example, the tens of billions of funds borrowed on AAVE can be used directly in the LIT system under the security guarantee of ETH (even if LIT stops operating, the assets will still be yours, which is great).

The cost of a LIT (Liquid Isolation Tissue) is about 0.5U, so if it becomes priced below 2U in the future, that would be a good deal.

If you want to invest in the sustainable sector now, LIT is only 1/10 the size of HYPE, but its growth potential may be greater than HYPE.

However, it should be noted that, just like with HYPE a year ago, LIT will need to be reassessed when a large number of tokens are unlocked a year later. Altcoins need to be monitored dynamically. Currently, I would say that LIT offers significantly better value for money than HYPE within a year.

However, the risk of $LIT lies in market share acquisition. The most optimistic expectation (which AI considers highly probable) is that ROBINHOOD's on-chain order book will directly use LIT, and its own public chain can serve as a settlement layer. However, it is unknown how much money ROBINHOOD invested in LIT or what percentage of the equity it holds. If it holds a large stake, it could be beneficial. The valuation in this round was around $1.5 billion, and the current market value is over $2 billion. But it is important to be wary that these are some optimistic expectations from the community, and even if they come true, it is still too early to tell. In addition, the probability of this happening is uncertain. These are all huge risk factors for newcomers.

As for ASTER, I think it's a garbage project that will die 99% of the time. I've said this before: Binance wants to support a puppet to fight HYPE, and that's bound to fail. I think I might be biased here, but I don't see any advantages ASTER has. If you say it's non-compliant, it has HYPE; if you say it's compliant, it has LIT.

Of course, from the perspective of the industry's logic, sustainability seems to have passed its most attractive and desirable period, and is no longer the best choice.

For buying LITs now, I recommend going directly to this website; other websites have too limited depth.

Attention beginners: Unless you have extensive research experience, please do not buy high-risk tokens like $LIT. You lack the ability to continuously track them and value them. My articles are not written specifically for you, so please only buy BTC. Remember that!

I. Predicting the Track

1. Polymarket: You can start with small amounts to play around and earn some small profits, which is suitable for beginners. Experienced investors and large funds are currently selling equity worth $12 billion off-exchange. I think it's worth buying; it offers significant returns and growth potential, which is quite appealing.

2. Other prediction markets are all imitations and are completely useless.

These kinds of projects can be completed with just one million yuan by assembling a team in Nanshan. Then, they can be listed on major exchanges without any empowerment or investment. Billions of yuan will be poured into them. If you want to play, try to get in at the lowest possible cost. If you want to buy, believe in the scam first and then believe in the scam later. Just be quick to exit.

The predicted track is an extremely strong track, not a pure zero-sum game. I think it will be even bigger than perpetual in the future.

II. DeFi Track

$AAVE is a good investment target, but its price is still very high. To determine its valuation, you only need to look at its annual earnings and market capitalization. I'm too lazy to check that, but its PE ratio is much higher than its HYPE ratio, roughly like that.

Therefore, this is a target worth tracking and monitoring in the long term. However, its risk lies in the future when US stocks and bonds are put on the blockchain; how much can it benefit from that? BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase will conduct their own lending—brokerages all have lending capabilities, and they will certainly do so on the blockchain in the future as well.

AAVE is listed as a good investment because it is the best investment in the DeFi sector of our cryptocurrency circle. It has been safe for many years, with hundreds of billions of dollars of assets stored in it. It is very active and stable in on-chain lending, with stable income and the token also has a certain function.

However, all altcoins carry risks! They require dynamic monitoring, and newcomers should be extremely cautious.

That's all I can think of for now.

ONDO and similar tokens are security tokens with top-notch backgrounds, but the tokens are currently useless and a large number are yet to be unlocked. Moreover, once US stocks are on the blockchain in the future, it may not be possible to empower them through this project, so there is a lot of uncertainty.

III. AI Track

$VIRTUAL is a project that generates revenue, and the team is very resilient. It's a young team that I really like. They seem to be one of the few teams that continues to explore new things and work hard for the token even through bull and bear markets. They are remarkable.

But it's true that I'm not good at valuing this project because the uncertainty is very high, and it's not easy to estimate it using revenue or similar metrics.

It's worth keeping an eye on in the long term. You could buy some after a big drop, as it's a good project, but I can't say for sure what a good price will be.

$WLD is currently facing significant challenges in offline expansion, and the selling pressure from this expansion will continue. It's best to keep an eye on it in the long term, as it's still too early to expect returns due to the current selling pressure. However, it is a good project, especially given that it was developed by the boss of OpenAI.

IV. Privacy Coin

ZEC is all the rage, but I think it's better to wait for a bear market, until it drops to 100 or something. Right now, it's mostly big players calling for trades, and fools are buying in. The future belongs to those who comply. Even powerful figures like Maduro have been dragged out of bed by those who don't comply. What's the point of privacy then?

Believe first, then believe. Strive to believe first. If you haven't believed first, then don't believe. Missing out won't kill you.

That's all I can think of for now. I'll add more in the comments section if I have anything else to say.

Finally, some people might say, "There aren't many coins, so there's nothing to play with?" If you want to spend money, there are 1 billion coins waiting for you to buy. But if you don't want to spend money, buy the coins first. Then, within six months, more and more people in the crypto world will buy US stock targets, which have many short-term 5-10x returns. And once you're stuck, holding on to them often brings you back.

In the future, all exchanges, especially on-chain exchanges, will be listing US stocks. Why are you in such a hurry to eat shit?

*Note: The above content is for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

ether.fi Foundation: 437,000 ETHFIs have been repurchased this week, spending 137 ETH

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